The year 2003 has been a very trying year for cellular service providers deploying infrastructure, especially for those that have invested large amounts for 3G licenses and equipment, reports In-Stat/MDR. Without the drive of high-speed data demand, the trend in units and overall base station revenue is down. Last year, total cellular base station revenue was over $31 billion, and with continuing price pressures, spectrum efficiency increases and slowing subscriber growth rates, the high-tech market research firm forecasts this same revenue to be almost half that in 2007.
"Unfortunately, cellular providers have assumed that mobile data would emerge from fixed-line data in the same way that mobile voice services emerged from fixed-line voice," said Allen Nogee, a principal analyst with In-Stat/MDR. "While voice and mobility naturally fit together, data and mobility don't." However, In-Stat/MDR finds that the number of cellular subscribers continues to grow, and infrastructure is getting better and cheaper. Still, for 3G to be successful, even as a voice technology, handsets must be reliable, and cost effective. While CDMA2000 1X handsets have met this challenge, UMTS handsets have fallen short here by a wide margin. It will take several years for UMTS handset prices to drop to a reasonable point, and for other UMTS handset issues to be resolved. By 2006, UMTS should be a viable solution, whereby operators will deploy UMTS without any second thoughts.
The report, "The Ups, The Downs, The Reality: 5-Year Cellular Base Station Deployment Forecast," contains a breakdown of cellular base stations, both deployed and shipped each year, broken out by region and air-interface. Air-interfaces covered in this report include CDMA, GSM, TDMA, PDC, PHS and W-CDMA. Numbers for 2002 are included, as well as a forecast out to 2007. In addition, this report also contains base station revenues, also broken out by region and air-interface.
In-Stat/MDR (now part of Linley Group) offers a broad range of information resources and analytical assets to technology vendors, service providers, technology professionals and market specialists worldwide. The company stands alone in its ability to integrate both supply-side and demand-side research methodologies into a single comprehensive view of technology markets and products. This capability relies on a unique ability to cover the entire value chain from engineering-level technology, through equipment, infrastructure, services and end users.