Hurricane Nate crossed Central America as a tropical storm before reaching the northern Gulf Coast as a Category 1 hurricane in October 2017. Its story is especially useful for understanding water hazards: rain over a broad region and coastal inundation describe different processes, and neither can be read from the wind category alone. This is a historical account.
Follow the storm through time
The timeline uses the NHC final tropical cyclone report, issued April 5, 2018. Times below are UTC, with U.S. Gulf Coast local time added for the two northern landfalls. A post-storm analysis can refine estimates made during the event.
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| Date and time | Event |
|---|---|
| October 4, 1200 UTC | Tropical depression forms in the southwestern Caribbean. |
| October 5, near 1200 UTC | Nate reaches northeastern Nicaragua as a tropical storm, then crosses eastern Honduras. |
| October 6, near 0300 UTC | The center emerges from Honduras into the Caribbean. |
| October 7, near 1200 UTC | Peak estimated sustained wind reaches 80 knots, about 90 mph. |
| October 8, near 0000 UTC | Landfall at the Mississippi River mouth at 75 knots; 7 p.m. CDT October 7. |
| October 8, 0520 UTC | Final landfall near Biloxi at 65 knots; 12:20 a.m. CDT October 8. |
Keep the storm’s name and its intensity at a particular time together. “Hurricane Nate” names the event as a whole; the October 5 stage was a tropical storm. The UTC date also explains why the first Gulf Coast landfall appears under October 8 in a track table and October 7 in local accounts.
Read rainfall and coastal water levels separately
The NHC report attributes Central American rainfall to Nate together with a larger regional gyre. During October 3–7, Costa Rica had numerous totals above 10 inches and a reported maximum of 19.19 inches at Maritima. In the United States, the report describes widespread 3–7-inch totals in affected regions and a maximum of 9.93 inches near Gulf Breeze, Florida.
For a regional perspective, the NWS Mobile/Pensacola event summary reports generally 2–7 inches at inland locations and 7–10 inches in coastal counties of its area. Those geographically scoped summaries can coexist: each describes its own footprint and observation set.
The same local summary documents coastal flooding, including inundated roads and waterfront areas. Rainfall is water falling onto a surface; storm-driven coastal inundation is water covering normally dry land. River flow, drainage and coastal water can interact, so describe the mechanism when interpreting a photograph or damage account.
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| Measurement | Meaning | Record with the number |
|---|---|---|
| Rainfall depth | Accumulated precipitation over an interval. | Gauge or estimate, location, start/end times and units. |
| Water elevation | The height of the water surface relative to a specified datum. | Gauge or surveyed mark, time and named vertical reference. |
| Inundation depth | Water depth above normally dry ground at a location. | Ground location and whether the value is measured or estimated. |
A ten-inch rain total and several feet of coastal water describe different quantities. Preserve the units and vertical reference when comparing reports. The NHC report’s water-level definitions are especially helpful when reading its surge maps.
Compare what was forecast with what was observed
The 4 a.m. CDT October 6, 2017 public advisory anticipated 3–6 inches of rain, with isolated maxima of 12 inches, over the U.S. central Gulf Coast. That was a forecast range and local-maximum possibility for a stated area and period. It should retain its issue time when quoted.
The final NHC assessment also found that Nate moved faster across the Gulf than forecasts had anticipated. For a reader, this is a reason to inspect arrival-time information and successive advisories alongside the track. Forecast evaluation should distinguish errors in location, timing, intensity and rainfall.
Use the right record for the question
Use the final NHC report for the analyzed track and storm-wide account. Use the 2017 advisory archive to reconstruct what information was available at a particular moment. Use local NWS event reports for observations and impacts within their stated areas. These records answer different questions, so disagreements should be checked against dates, definitions and geography before choosing a number.
For a research note, record the source title, publication date, observation location, time zone and measurement type. Separate your interpretation from the reported observation. The lasting lesson from Nate is to examine each hazard on its own terms, then connect it to the place and people affected.
For an active storm today, go to the current National Hurricane Center outlook and advisories and local emergency instructions. The hurricane forecast guide explains how to read wind, surge and rainfall products together.