55% of California voters stated they support the special election. Heightening the high-stakes drama, 70% of California voters stated they would vote for the Austrian-born movie star, Arnold Schwarzenegger, over Governor Gray Davis in a head-to-head race, according to an independent analysis conducted by Feedback Research, a division of The Gator Corporation.
Through an online survey polling a random sample of Gator's millions of California users on July 15, 2003, over 2,546 California registered voters responded to questions evaluating their awareness levels of the recall election, reasons for the recall, and, opinions on who should be the Golden State's next Governor.
"Conducting extensive consumer research for many of our 800 clients and Fortune 1000 advertisers to uncover marketing insights on consumer behavior is the specialty of Feedback Research," stated Scott Eagle, Chief Marketing Officer of Feedback Research and The Gator Corporation. "The California recall election issue provided us an opportunity to creatively use our relationship and insights with millions of Internet users to gauge the public's reaction to this history-making event -- and we are delighted to showcase our capabilities in this way."
Some highlights of Feedback Research's survey indicate:
- 68% of respondents thought the recall effort was due to Davis's mismanagement of the California economy
- 70% of respondents would vote for Schwarzenegger over Davis in a head-to-head election
- 47% of Schwarzenegger supporters stated the main reason they would vote for Schwarzenegger is because he is NOT a politician
- 92% of respondents were aware of who Arnold Schwarzenegger is, followed by Davis (89%) and potential candidate Dianne Feinstein (84%)
- 94% of respondents had seen at least one Schwarzenegger movie
Hypothetical Recall Election Results: Arnold Schwarzenegger for "Governator"
As part of the survey, Feedback Research conducted a mock election pairing Arnold Schwarzenegger against potential candidates such as Gray Davis, Dianne Feinstein and generic Democratic candidates. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the favored vote getter in all match-ups. Results include:
(Please note that "Davis supporters" is defined as survey participants who voted for Gray Davis in the last California Governor election.)
Schwarzenegger vs. Davis:
- 70% of all respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 34% of Davis supporters stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 48% of Democrat respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
Schwarzenegger vs. Feinstein:
- 55% of all respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 22% of Davis supporters stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 27% of Democrat respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
Schwarzenegger vs. any Democrat:
- 63% of all respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 30% of Davis supporters stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
- 35% of Democrat respondents stated they would vote for Schwarzenegger
When told of the results, George Gorton, Schwarzenegger's political adviser said, "I am delighted. This is the third poll we've seen where Arnold beats Feinstein and the latest in an unbroken string where he beats Davis. We are especially pleased with The Gator Corporation's findings because Internet users are more informed than the average voter, and therefore their opinions should closely approximate the opinions of the highly motivated voters who will show up in this low turn out special election."
California Voters Support a Recall Election
Of the 89% of respondents aware of the current recall election issue in California, 55% of respondents were in favor of a recall election. The survey also culled the following interesting information:
- 77% of Republican respondents were in favor of a recall, versus 36% of Democrats
- 25% of Davis supporters were in favor of a recall election, 61% were opposed to it
- More Republican respondents tended to believe the recall effort was due to Davis wanting to raise certain taxes (42% vs. 33% of total sample) and pandering to special interest groups (43% vs. 32% of total sample)
Founded in 1998, The Gator Corporation (Redwood City, CA) is a behavioral marketing company that works with software developers to create ad-supported software. Popular programs like ICQ and MSNBC News Alert work on a similar basis: users accept free software in return for receiving ads. The company's clients include over 800 corporations including over 80 Fortune 1000 clients in the verticals of Entertainment, Travel, Consumer Packaged Goods, Financial Services, Retail and Automotive, who utilize Gator's services to deliver advertisements targeted to individual consumer interests.