OIL PRODUCTION SERIES AND TREND WORKSHEET
Yenra | Updated September 7, 2026
Article: https://yenra.com/wiki/Increasing_US_oil_production/

PURPOSE
Use one clearly identified EIA series to make a reproducible statement
about U.S. oil production. Preserve the data used and distinguish
historical estimates, revisions and forecasts.

SERIES RECORD
Exact title and series/table identifier:
Source URL and publication:
Geography:
Product definition, including lease condensate treatment:
Frequency (weekly, monthly, annual):
Units and scale:
Observation periods:
Release date and retrieval date:
Saved original data location:
Methodology / revision-policy notes:

COMPARISON
Earlier value and period:
Later value and period:
Absolute change = later - earlier.
Percent change = (later - earlier) / earlier x 100.
Use comparable periods and one data vintage.
When the earlier value is zero, this percent-change formula is undefined.
Thousand barrels/day / 1,000 = million barrels/day.
Retain "per day" when describing a rate.

FICTIONAL EXAMPLE
Earlier 12.0 and later 12.6 million barrels/day.
Change = .6 million barrels/day = 600,000 barrels/day.
Growth = .6 / 12.0 x 100 = 5%.
If the earlier estimate is revised to 12.2:
Change = .4 million barrels/day; growth = .4 / 12.2 x 100,
approximately 3.28%.
These values are invented, not current U.S. production figures.

AGGREGATION
Use non-overlapping regional components in compatible units.
For annual daily averages from monthly rates, multiply each monthly
rate by its day count, sum and divide by the year's day count.
Alternatively sum monthly volumes and divide by days in the year.
Avoid an unweighted mean that treats every month as equally long.

FORECAST CHECK
Forecast publication and edition date:
Target period:
Projected value:
Historical estimate and its retrieval date:
Error definition and calculation:
Later revisions to note:
Keep forecast revisions separate from realized production changes.

INTERPRETATION
Is this month-over-month, year-over-year or another comparison?
Are temporary factors or provisional data identified by the source?
Inventory series used, if any:
Stocks are a quantity held at a time; production is a flow.
A stock draw alone leaves the production trend unresolved.
Final statement with quantity, geography, units, periods and vintage:
Unresolved question and next source to inspect:

REFERENCE CONTEXT
The linked article explains the comparisons and limits. Check exact project or equipment documents before using a specification.
EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/
weekly supply estimates
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SNDW_DCUS_NUS_W.htm
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/